Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
