The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Improbable Title Charge

Just two months in the past when the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of the team's more general malaise.

This weekend, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. When the England international swept in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six games, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?

It remains a particularly tough proposition to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.

As per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa registered an xG notably superior than the other team. For a side who have put together 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to save the day with some clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more when facing Manchester United.

The initial strike originated from a superb shot, bent just inside the post from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United had more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.

• The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
• The winger might become the player he resembled in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.

This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.